Detalles MARC
| 000 -LEADER |
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| fixed length control field |
02201nam a2200289 a 4500 |
| 001 - CONTROL NUMBER |
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| control field |
C00073581c |
| 003 - CONTROL NUMBER IDENTIFIER |
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| control field |
DO-SdBDB |
| 005 - DATE AND TIME OF LATEST TRANSACTION |
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| control field |
20230317143257.0 |
| 008 - FIXED-LENGTH DATA ELEMENTS--GENERAL INFORMATION |
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| fixed length control field |
160801s20152015esp |||| ||spa d |
| 020 ## - INTERNATIONAL STANDARD BOOK NUMBER |
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| International Standard Book Number |
9780804136693 |
| 041 ## - LANGUAGE CODE |
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| Language code of text/sound track or separate title |
eng |
| 043 ## - GEOGRAPHIC AREA CODE |
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| Geographic area code |
n-us |
| 050 #4 - LIBRARY OF CONGRESS CALL NUMBER |
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| Classification number |
HB 3730 |
| Item number |
.T47 2015 |
| 100 1# - MAIN ENTRY--PERSONAL NAME |
|---|
| Personal name |
Tetlock, Philip E. |
| 245 10 - TITLE STATEMENT |
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| Title |
Superforecasting : |
| Remainder of title |
the art and science of prediction / |
| Statement of responsibility, etc. |
Philip E. Tetlock, Dan Gardner ; illustration by Joe LeMonnier ; jacket design by Christopher Brand. |
| 250 ## - EDITION STATEMENT |
|---|
| Edition statement |
First edition. |
| 260 ## - PUBLICATION, DISTRIBUTION, ETC. |
|---|
| Place of publication, distribution, etc. |
New York : |
| Name of publisher, distributor, etc. |
Crown Publishers, |
| Date of publication, distribution, etc. |
2015. |
| 300 ## - PHYSICAL DESCRIPTION |
|---|
| Extent |
340 páginas : |
| Other physical details |
ilustraciones, gráficas a blanco y negro ; |
| Dimensions |
24 cm. |
| 505 0# - FORMATTED CONTENTS NOTE |
|---|
| Formatted contents note |
1. An Optimistic Skeptic, 1 -- |
| Title |
2. Illusions of Knowledge, 24 -- |
| -- |
3. Keeping Score, 46 -- |
| -- |
4. Superforecasters, 81 -- |
| -- |
5. Supersmart?, 105 -- |
| -- |
6. Superquants?, 128 -- |
| -- |
7. Supernewsjunkies?, 153 -- |
| -- |
8. Perpetual Beta, 174 -- |
| -- |
9. Superteams, 193 -- |
| -- |
10. The Leader's Dilemma, 212 -- |
| -- |
11. Are They Really So Super?, 231 -- |
| -- |
12. What's Next?, 250 -- |
| -- |
Epilogue, 271 -- |
| -- |
An invitation, 275 -- |
| -- |
Appendix: Ten commandments for aspiring superforecasters, 277 -- |
| -- |
Acknowledgments, 287 -- |
| -- |
Notes, 291 -- |
| -- |
Index, 329. |
| 520 3# - SUMMARY, ETC. |
|---|
| Summary, etc. |
A partir de uno de los científicos sociales más respetados del mundo, un libro transformador en los hábitos mentales que conducen a las mejores predicciones. Todo el mundo se beneficiará de ver más lejos en el futuro, ya sea la compra de acciones, la elaboración de la política, el lanzamiento de un nuevo producto, o simplemente la planificación de las comidas de la semana. Desafortunadamente, las personas tienden a ser terribles pronosticadores. Como profesor de Wharton Philip Tetlock mostró en un estudio de referencia de 2005, aunque las predicciones de los expertos son sólo ligeramente mejor que el azar. Sin embargo, una conclusión importante y sub-registro de ese estudio fue que algunos expertos tienen la previsión real. |
| 650 ## - SUBJECT ADDED ENTRY--TOPICAL TERM |
|---|
| Topical term or geographic name entry element |
Predicciones económicas. |
| 650 ## - SUBJECT ADDED ENTRY--TOPICAL TERM |
|---|
| Topical term or geographic name entry element |
Predicciones. |
| 700 1# - ADDED ENTRY--PERSONAL NAME |
|---|
| Personal name |
Gardner, Dan. |
| 700 1# - ADDED ENTRY--PERSONAL NAME |
|---|
| Personal name |
LeMonnier, Joe., |
| Relator term |
ilustraciones. |
| 700 1# - ADDED ENTRY--PERSONAL NAME |
|---|
| Personal name |
Brand, Christopher., |
| Relator term |
diseño de camisa. |
| 942 ## - ADDED ENTRY ELEMENTS (KOHA) |
|---|
| Koha item type |
Monografía - Colección General |
