Business cycles, inflation, and forecasting / Geoffrey H. Moore.

List of tables, xiii -- List of figures, xix -- Introduction, 1 -- Part I. Business Cycles, 11 -- Chapter 1. What is a recession?, 13 -- Chapter 2. Growth cycles: a new-old concept, 21 -- Chapter 3. Lessons of the 1073-1976 recession and recovery, 25 -- Chapter 4. Some secular changes in business cycles, 65 -- Chapter 5. The current state of the international business cycle: a new measurement System, 73 -- Chapter 6. How full is full employment?-Interpreting the unemployment statistics, 109 -- Chapter 7. Presenting employment and unemployment statistics in a business cycle context, 139 -- Chapter 8. The federal deficit as a business cycle stabilizer, 173 -- Chapter 9. Security markets and business cycles, 185 -- Part II. Inflation, 207 -- Chapter 10. Five little-known facts about inflation, 209 -- Chapter 11. The cyclical behavior of prices, 213 -- Chapter 12. Employment, unemployment, and the inflation-recession dilemma, 249 -- Chapter 13. Recession slows inflation, 271 -- Chapter 14. Productivity, costs, and princes: new light from an old hypothesis, 275 -- Chapter 15. Inflation and profits, 293 -- Part III. Forecasting, 299 -- Chapter 16. The analysis of economic indicators, 301 -- Chapter 17. Why the leading indicators really do lead, 321 -- Chapter 18. A new leading indicator of unemployment, 335 -- Chapter 19. When lagging indicators lead: the history of an idea, 341 -- Chapter 20. The forty-second anniversary of the leading indicators, 349 -- Chapter 21. Economic indicators and econometric models, 381 -- Chapter 22. Forecasting short-term economic change, 389 -- Chapter 23. The presidents economic report: A forecasting record, 421 -- Appendix, 437 -- Index, 451 -- About the author, 461.